Pattullo Bridge replacement is one of a group of major construction projects due to begin in B.C. (Black Press Media)

Big construction projects to drive big migration to B.C. in 2020

Forestry, housing to slow growth, says credit union forecast

Pipelines, LNG Canada, the Pattullo Bridge replacement and a new Vancouver subway are all set to drive a big increase in interprovincial migration to B.C. starting next year, Central 1 Credit Union says in its latest economic forecast.

Coupled with Site C dam construction that is reaching its peak, these major projects are expected to help push interprovincial migration into B.C. from 3,400 people this year to more than 12,000 in 2020, says the organization representing credit unions in B.C. and Ontario.

B.C.’s economic growth is leading the country, and the pace of growth is expected to slow from 2.7 per cent in 2019 to near one per cent by 2020, according to the forecast.

While internal signs for B.C. are strong, global economic conditions continue to cast a shadow. A U.S.-China trade war with Canada entangled, American trade actions against softwood lumber and turmoil in the European Union with the impending exit of Britain are risk factors in the coming years.

Housing construction continues at a fast pace, with a record second quarter for B.C. housing starts, but that is mainly a result of pre-sale condos in earlier years, said Bryan Yu, deputy chief economist for Central 1.

“Home ownership demand, owing to federal mortgage stress tests and provincial government tax measures, has dragged the resale market into recession-like conditions since early 2018, with price levels adjusting lower accordingly, says B.C. Economic Outlook 2019-2022. “Metro Vancouver is at the centre of the market correction, with sales trending at 2012 levels and price declines nearly 10 per cent from peak.”

RELATED: B.C. housing market slows, prices fall in 2019

RELATED: B.C. mayors call for federal forest industry aid

Other limiting factors are the ongoing slump in the B.C. forest industry and the availability of skilled labour as people retire in greater numbers. The unemployment rate is forecast to decline to four per cent in the coming years.

Are there going to be enough skilled people in the rest of Canada to move to B.C. for jobs? Yu says there are.

“The economic conditions are relatively slower in Alberta at the current time, and with these major projects we do see a strong labour market in B.C.,” Yu said in an interview with Black Press. “There are always concerns about affordability issues in the [urban] region.”

Workers and their families are part of a wider trend in B.C. population growth, with international immigrants being the main source. From 2019 to 2021, B.C. is forecast to grow by an average of 60,000 people annually, driving significant demand in retail consumption and housing.


@tomfletcherbc
tfletcher@blackpress.ca

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

BC legislature

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Comments are closed

Just Posted

Garden-sharing map connects Victoria landowners and gardeners

U-Map created by Young Agrarians after COVID-19 created uptick in garden matching requests

Saanich wins award for climate plan cut from 2020 budget

‘It’s truly an exceptional plan,’ says councillor disappointed with lack of funding

Oak Bay Grade 8 students end time at Monterey with drive-through goodbye

School holds socially-distanced completion ceremony

CRD warns of toxic algae bloom at Thetis Lake Regional Park

Visitors advised to avoid swimming in lake, keep pets out of water

Saanich police, pound respond to possible cougar sighting

Cougar possibly seen in area of 4500-block of Chatterton Way

VIDEO: Musqueam Chief captures captivating footage of bald eagle catching meal

‘This is why we have chosen to live here since time immemorial,’ Chief Wayne Sparrow’s nephew says

Police ramp up efforts to get impaired drivers off B.C. roads this summer

July is dedicated to the Summer CounterAttack Impaired Driving Campaign

Migrant workers stage multi-city action for full status amid COVID-19 risks

‘COVID-19 has exacerbated an existing crisis’

Okanagan school drops ‘Rebels’ sports team name, citing links with U.S. Civil War

Name and formerly-used images “fly in the face” of the district’s human rights policy, says board chair

PHOTOS: B.C.’s top doc picks up personalized Fluevog shoes, tours mural exhibition

Murals of Gratitude exhibit includes at least one portrait of Henry alongside paintings of health-care workers

In troubled times: Independence Day in a land of confusion

Buffeted by invisible forces and just plain worn out, the United States of America celebrates its 244th birthday

Stop enforcing sex work laws during COVID-19, advocates say

There are provisions in Canada’s prostitution laws that make workers immune from prosecution, but not from arrest

Liberal party finished 2019 having spent $43 million, raised $42 million

All political parties had until midnight June 30 to submit their financial reports for last year

B.C. teacher loses licence after sexual relationships with two recently-graduated students

The teacher won’t be allowed to apply for a teaching certificate until 2035

Most Read