Nanaimo’s Dr. David Forrest made a video address this week, stressing that COVID-19 is a serious disease and expressing concern that it could overwhelm the health-care system on Vancouver Island. (Leigh Gibson-Unickow/Facebook image)

Doctor concerned about COVID-19 ‘overpowering’ Island’s health-care system

Dr. David Forrest releases video imploring people to take measures to prevent spreading coronavirus

A Nanaimo physician says Vancouver Island could be hit harder than Italy if the number of coronavirus cases gets out of hand here.

Dr. David Forrest, an infectious diseases specialist and physician at Nanaimo Regional General Hospital, turned to social media this week to plead with the public to help control the spread of the coronavirus to prevent COVID-19 cases from “overpowering” the medical system.

In a video message, more than seven minutes long and circulated on social media Monday, Forrest said that Vancouver Island has far fewer ICU ventilator beds than what are available to populations in the rest of the Western world. If the medical system on the Island becomes overwhelmed, he said, “some of you will get very sick and some of you will die. It may be your mother, your grandfather, your best friend, your child.”

Forrest said there were about 30 known cases on the Island, but those cases were confirmed because those patients were tested and he said it’s likely there are hundreds or thousands of people infected.

While it’s true, he said, that many people are not very sick, others are and if even only 20 per cent of Canada’s population become infected and just one or two per cent of those patients die, the death toll could reach 140,000 across the country.

“That’s staggering,” he said. “In Nanaimo, if 20,000 become infected, that’s 400 people who could die, but many more than that will need hospital care.”

If 14 per cent of those infected need hospital care, it means NRGH will be flooded with 2,800 patients, five per cent of whom will require intensive care unit services. But NRGH as a regional medical centre serves the central Island region with a population of about 200,000 people, so the numbers of people needing hospitalization could double.

“The burden on our health-care system will be massive and overwhelming,” Forrest said. “We are worse off in Nanaimo because we only have 4.5 ventilator ICU beds in Nanaimo per 100,000 people. That’s far less than there are in the rest of the western world, far less than there are in Italy where their health-care system has been massively overwhelmed.”

RELATED: COVID-19 pandemic is no time for divisiveness, North Island medical health officer says

Last week Island Health said it had 96 intensive care beds and 140 ventilators.

Dr. Bonnie Henry, provincial health officer, said during a press conference Saturday that “there are ventilators on Vancouver Island” and more being added to the system. Asked if there are enough ventilators at NRGH and if doctors may potentially have to choose who should receive them, she said no single physician will have to make those kinds of “distressing decisions” in isolation.

RELATED: Doctors will have help with any ‘distressing decisions’ around which COVID-19 patients get ventilators

Forrest said COVID-19 is not an old person’s disease and said it’s likely common that youths get the virus and even if they’re asymptomatic, might be passing it on to others.

“Yes, it is older people and those with underlying medical conditions that are most at risk for complications, but up to 50 per cent of ICU admissions have been for people under age 50 and, while fewer than half of people who go to ICU die, most of those who get through ICU are on a breathing machine with tubes stuck in every orifice and poked daily for intravenous lines for blood work for weeks and it is yet unclear if there will be any permanent lung damage from the infection,” Forrest said. “COVID-19 is a serious disease.”

READ ALSO: B.C. reports 3 new COVID-19 deaths but 100 people have recovered, Henry says

READ ALSO: Fraser Health says ‘well-intentioned call to action’ from Surrey nurse contains ‘misinformation’

READ ALSO: Stay informed about COVID-19



photos@nanaimobulletin.com
Like us on
Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Coronavirus

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Food safety a good practice amid COVID-19 concerns

BC Centre for Disease Control offers useful food safe information for households

Sidney’s top emergency official says he is not aware of any COVID-19 cases in the community

The public Sunday also heard of future plans to help local businesses through tax deferments

Digitization of Peninsula News Review by Sidney Museum and Archives preserves historical legacy

Searchable database will ease research and preserve integrity of records

COVID-19: Victoria plumbing company dedicates van for grocery delivery

The Super Plumber uses van to pick up groceries for those in need during COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19: A message from the publisher

We will be making some changes to our print editions during these unprecedented times

Evening world update: U.S. restrictions extended 30 days; NY deaths near 1,000

Comprehensive world update, with the latest developments in the COVID-19 crisis

‘It’s up to us: Recently-returned B.C. couple urges Canadians to take COVID-19 seriously

Garrett Kucher and Tory Apostoliuk make it home after almost a week of lockdown in Spain

‘Nothing concrete’: Tenants, landlords lack details after B.C. unveils COVID-19 rental aid

Single mom in Golden says she’s already going to the food bank after being laid off

Canada will make sure masks sent by China meet quality standards: Trudeau

Chinese Embassy tweeted that China was sending 30,000 medical masks along with gowns, gloves and goggles

B.C. issues guidelines about distancing, reusable bags to grocery stores amid COVID-19

Hand sanitizer and markers to keep lines two metres are apart are needed, province says

No plans to call in military right now to enforce COVID-19 quarantine: Trudeau

Trudeau unveils $7.5M for Kids Help Phone, $9M for vulnerable seniors amid COVID-19

QUIZ: How much do you know about the Olympics?

Put your knowledge to the test with these 12 questions

Most Read