Prime Minister Stephen Harper met Governor General David Johnston Sunday morning to officially start Canada's 42nd General election. Voters go to the polls Oct. 19.

ELECTION 2015: Campaign officially underway, spending limits kick in

Stephen Harper's Conservatives gain edge by launching longest federal election campaign in modern history: political analyst

Federal election lawn signs have begun to sprout now that Prime Minister Stephen Harper has fired the starting pistol on what will be a 78-day campaign, the longest in modern history.

The prime minister visited Governor General David Johnston at Rideau Hall Sunday morning to dissolve Parliament and begin the election set for Oct. 19.

The voting day had been fixed in legislation and party leaders had been in campaign mode for weeks, but dropping the writ this far ahead means spending limits will be in force for much longer than the typical 36 days.

That will give a financial advantage to Harper and the Conservatives, according to SFU political scientist Patrick Smith.

“They certainly have the largest war chest,” Smith said. “Money matters in politics.”

He predicts the Tories will far outspend their rivals and might be in a position to blitz advertising channels late in the campaign when NDP and Liberal coffers may be nearly exhausted.

A campaign more than twice the usual length means a spending limit twice as high – more than $50 million per party – that only the Tories have a realistic shot at fully exploiting.

“They have more money than the other parties so they can withstand a longer race.”

The early writ drop means third party advertising – such as union-funded anti-Tory attack ads by Engage Canada – will now be subject to a tight $200,000 spending limit, largely clamping down on their influence.

That was a key motivation for starting the campaign now rather than waiting, Smith said.

“It shuts up third party advertising and at the moment they see that as problematic.”

A long, financial war of attrition on the hustings could have ramifications beyond who actually wins the election.

Smith currently predicts a Conservative minority. In that scenario, he says, a cash-depleted or possibly indebted opposition will be less inclined to topple a minority Tory government and force a new election.

“They’re not likely to try to trigger an election in the first six months, so that helps stabilize a Conservative minority,” Smith said. “So people who think about the longer game will be thinking about those kinds of things.”

The longest campaign in more than a century will also mean higher costs to taxpayers.

Elections Canada’s costs will be higher to mobilize staff earlier.

And more spending than usual by the parties would translate into a higher government subsidy back to the them for use in future campaigns.

As for significant issues, Smith expects the federal push for new oil pipelines across B.C. will hurt the Conservatives in this province.

But he said the slowing economy will be the dominant issue on voters’ minds in deciding which party to support.

Another month of economic contraction could make a suspected recession official by September.

Smith isn’t sure that would necessarily be bad for the PM.

“If the economy is bad, do we have to stay with Harper because he’s the best man to manage it or does he get the blame?”

The bigger danger for Harper is that “once people start humming the change tune, it’s pretty hard to reverse it.”

For the Conservatives to win even a minority, the Tories may need the anti-Harper vote split as evenly as possible between the Liberals and NDP, Smith said, and many votes bled off by the Greens as well.

He thinks the Conservatives will struggle to hold onto their seats in B.C.and the Greens may take another seat or two from the NDP on Vancouver Island.

“These things could become more significant if we end up in a minority government with different permutations and combinations.”

VIDEO: Stephen Harper launches 11-week federal election campaign

Prime Minister Stephen Harper says most political parties have already started campaigning ahead of the October 19th federal election. Stephen Harper says officially launching the election forces the campaigns to be done within the rules (via The Canadian Press)

Just Posted

$11 million overdraw for McKenzie Interchange construction

The project has been delayed multiple times and is now estimating a budget of $96 million

Alzheimer Society calls for helpline volunteers in Greater Victoria

Charity is in ‘urgent need’ as calls on the rise

Council pursues water line extension for north Sooke

Properties affected by Highway 14 project may see water service

Juan de Fuca Marine Trail re-opens after lengthy repairs

The trail has been closed since February

Convicted drug trafficker asks Victoria courtroom for chance to ‘turn this around’

Horst Schirmer sentenced for convictions on five counts of possession related to trafficking

VIDEO: Trans Mountain expansion project gets green light, again

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the decision in Ottawa on Tuesday afternoon

Man to be sentenced for sexual abuse of young girl in Nanaimo

Stephen Mark Castleden also sentenced for child pornography-related charges

MPs hear retired B.C. nurse’s petition to change compensation for fatal medical errors

Teri McGrath wants provinces to implement no-fault system for medical errors

Horgan says he’ll still defend B.C. coast after second Trans Mountain approval

Meanwhile, one B.C. First Nation has announced plans for a legal challenge

VIDEO: Firefighters stop blaze from spreading after BMW crashes at Saratoga Speedway

Victoria-based businessmen were ‘corner training’ on Father’s Day when incident took place

Demonstrators on either side of Trans Mountain debate clash in Vancouver

Crowd heard from member of Indigenous-led coalition that hopes to buy 51% of expansion project

POLL: Do you support the government’s decision to approve the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion?

The federal government announced Tuesday its approval for the Trans Mountain pipeline… Continue reading

Grieving B.C. mom hopes Facebook message leads to new investigation into son’s Surrey homicide

Criminal Justice Branch didn’t lay charges, concluding no substantial likelihood of murder or manslaughter conviction

Ginger Goodwin’s Cumberland cemetery grave desecrated

Just days before the Miners Memorial weekend, Ginger Goodwin’s grave has been… Continue reading

Most Read